Good A Lot Of Stakeholders Are Engaged. Essay Example

Introduction

In this paper I am going to address the problem of terrorism. The theme itself is no longer innovatory or interesting, but I would present it from another angle. The issue of my research is new form of terrorism applied by the Russian Federation while invading in Ukraine and Georgia. This report aims to explain how new ways of terrorism, so-called ‘hybrid war’ may be conquered. Also I will provide possible solutions for peaceful settlement. In particular, I want to address the case of Ukraine, which has fallen subject to Russian aggression. This issue is controversial and interesting at the same time, because:

Parties have not come to a peaceful settlement yet.
A new form of war, to mind, jeopardizes Europe and proves the inefficiency of the system of collective security.
Context
Ukrainian intellectuals and youth, who had hoped for a positive turn of events, were at least disappointed. Subsequent protests in many cities of Ukraine toppled the regime of Yanukovich and Azarov, clearly illustrating the political risks undertaken by Ukrainian leaders by their abrupt change of course two months ago.
Many official and unofficial representatives of Russia in recent months suggested Ukraine, instead of signing the Agreement with the EU, to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In August 2013 Russia briefly demonstrated Ukraine, with what consequences that will have to be considered in case of signing an agreement with the EU. As a consequence of pre-unannounced sharp tightening of customs control almost all Ukrainian exports to Russia was stopped for five days. Losses as Ukrainian exporters and Russian importers were measured in millions of dollars. (The Economist, 2013)
After the ouster of President Yanukovych, Moscow's strategy of flexible pressure was transformed into hard pressure and, eventually, military intervention. It is almost a year since Russia invaded Donbass region and since it annexed the Crimean peninsula. While invading, Russia used techniques called ‘hybrid war’. This means establishment of the situation in which a social unrest becomes a reason for intervention and subsequent annexation. Conventional weapons are used alongside with the informational warfare. After coup d'etat in Ukraine pro-European parties took the power and declared their intention to integrate with the EU. Here Russia made its turn by supporting Crimean riots and establishment of satellite government on the peninsula. Within 2 weeks a referendum was held declaring the will of ‘the people of The Crimea’ to become a region of Russian Federation. Authorities in Kiev were busy with carving up. There are two major reasons why the annexation became possible without a single shot:

Absence of legit and responsible authorities in Kiev

The Black Sea Fleet with its principal base in Sevastopol. There was many of Russian soldiery there. Once needed, they conquered all strategic objects on the peninsula, including airports and quays.
Thousands of people died in the undeclared war. Russia backs separatists in Donbass with artillery and even unconventional weapons, thus escalating the conflict. There have been lots of military operations in the area with the Russian troops involved, but official sources claim that there is no Russian presence in the region (Reuters, 2014). Newly elected President Poroshenko stated that there is no solution by military means. Meetings were held in Minsk between Putin, Poroshenko, Olland, and Merkel where a Peaceful Resolution Plan was agreed upon. It seems to be observed so far. But there is still lack of cooperation between separatists, Moscow and official Kiev. (Kovalyova, 2014)
At a glance, we may talk about two stakeholders: Russia and Ukraine. But if we take a deeper look and analyze some media (as I did), we will see an general picture. I would like to talk about stakeholders and their relation to the problem.
Ukraine is a victim of aggression. Due to annexation and war economics suffers from galloping inflation and large losses in the East. Russia, main counterpart is no longer an available market.
Russia is, in fact, an aggressor. The conflict would not exist if Mr. Putin didn’t want it exist. Russia has annexed Crimea and supports rebels. Moreover, Russian regular army troop are based in Donbass and actually take part in warfare. On the other hand, Russia has become a victim of sanctions imposed by western countries which led to inflation, inability to attract capital from international money markets. Currently, Russia suffers from sanctions which lead to economic recession.
DNR\LNR (self-declared separatists states): artificial structures, governed by proxy authorities of Mr. Putin. They consider themselves to fight for freedom from ‘Ukrainian fascist’. Rebels regularly use artillery despite of peace between the parties. This element is essential in the ‘hybrid war’. (BBC News, 2014)
USA is seen as sponsors of Maidan. Russia stresses and emphasized the US mark in Ukrainian events that was almost mandatory in the speeches of the President's message. USA supply aid to Ukraine and Mr. Obama seek to help Ukraine with weapons, which would help in case the warfare begins again. On the other hand, weapon supplies would probably escalate the situation.
EU is the intermediary between Ukraine and Russia. EU imposed sanctions on Russia, but is still unwilling to impose sanctions. On the other hand, EU is the power, which can help Ukraine through Association Agreement. Currently, Ukraine has zero tariffs on some kinds of export production.
China is the least involved party. And some do not consider is a stakeholder at all. But to my mind, China benefits from the current situation, and thus is interested in it. There are two key points about China, which are, in fact, controversial:
Russia and China signed a gas contract in May 2014, which journalists previously called the "deal of the century". The subject is the supply of fuel for quite a long perspective – over 30 years.The gas agreement extremely profitable for China has become the result of sanctions imposed on Russia. Mr. Putin seeks allies and wants China to back him in this dispute. China tries to benefit from this in all possible ways.
China has its internal disputes concerning Taiwan and Hong Kong. If they officially support Russia, then a dispute might occur inside of the country regarding its islands.

Problems

Having examined several sources, I have pointed out 3 major problems for both countries.
In 2014, the Russian economy has almost reached recession: its GDP grew by only 0.6%. Meanwhile in Ukraine Russian aggression led to the emergence of economic problems of an entirely different scale: Ukraine's GDP fell by almost 10%. In 1991, the size of the economy of Ukraine and Poland were approximately the same. Poland has integrated into Europe, Ukraine has chosen a different course. By 2014, Ukraine's GDP amounted to only one-third of Poland's GDP (and the gap continues to grow).
Loss of Ukraine - is the acquisition for Russia. In March, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, an area of ​​27,000 square kilometers - more than Massachusetts. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia and the separatists control 7% of Ukrainian territory, where about one-fifth of the population lives. The share of Donetsk and Lugansk accounts for about 15% of Ukraine's GDP and one-third of industrial output. Ukraine has every reason to be skeptical of past peace talks. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after the conclusion of a peace treaty separatists have opened fire more than 1000 times. (http://mfa.gov.ua/en)
In 2014, the Russian ruble was runner-up in the list of the weakest currencies in the world, having lost 46% of its value against the dollar. But the first place was taken by Ukrainian hryvna, which lost more than half of its value. In 2015, the Ukrainian currency was launched exactly from the point where it left off. Following a statement by the Ukrainian government, made on 5 February that it would no longer support the national currency, in just 48 hours, the hryvna has fallen by 50%.

Recommendations

The situation can be resolved only by peaceful means of diplomacy. Taking into account the limited resources of Ukraine, I dare say, that ongoing conflict may result in possible default. The Poroshenko plan declares pace and subsequent referendum on federalization. To my mind, this is the only possible way to resolve the issue with Mr. Putin, who demands constitutional reform. The people of Ukraine would be able to decide. The trick here is that 7% of Ukraine territory is occupied by rebels. Moreover, the Crimea issue is not even raised. Ukrainian authority should agree on the suffrage plan, so that every region will be able to vote. This will also include OSCE supervision.
The second issue at point is control over borders. About 400 km of Ukraine borders are controlled by rebels. This allows Russia to supply the latter with any kinds of weapons. Referendum can be held only on condition that Ukrainian troops will take control over the frontier.
The last is financial collapse. Ukraine has already received a loan from IMF, which allowed it to avoid default and galloping inflation. Now the primary goal is to stabilize financial sector by bailouts and interventions.

Conclusions

The conflict in Ukraine tests Europe ability to defend its allies. Putin’s ambitions are to take control over the whole Ukraine, but his plan has already failed. As we see from Georgia example, he intended to perform a ‘blitzkrieg’ plan. As this scenario failed, under the impact of sanctions, Russian bear has to back off. But Russia is still reluctant to give up. To sum up, I would like to say, that certain measures need to be taken in order to ensure progress in the enforcement of Peaceful Plan. The main purpose of Ukrainian government is to hold a referendum on federalization and to take control over the border.

Bibliography

Albina Kovalyova, “Meet the Russian Orthodox Army, Ukrainian Separatists' Shock Troops”. NBC News, [online]. (16 May 2014). Available at: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/meet-russian-orthodox-army-ukrainian-separatists-shock-troops-n107426 [Accessed 15 April 2015]
Derek Fraser, “The Refusal of President Yanukovych of Ukraine to sign at the EU Vilnius Summit on 28 to 29 November, the Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union” Euca.net, [online]. (3 December 2013). Available at: http://www.eucanet.org/news/media-tips/6-international-relations/169-the-refusal-of-president-yanukovych-of-ukraine-to-sign-at-the-eu-vilnius-summit-on-28-to-29-november-the-association-agreement-including-a-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area-dcfta-with-the-european-union [Accessed 15 April 2015]
“East Ukraine separatists seek union with Russia". BBC News, (12 May 2014). Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27369980 [Accessed 15 April 2015]
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Available at: http://mfa.gov.ua/en [Accessed 15 April 2015]
"Russia denies reports of military presence in Ukraine". Reuters, [online]. (10 September 2014). Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-ukraine-crisis-denial-idUSKBN0GS22Z20140828 [Accessed 15 April 2015]
“Trading insults”, the Economist, (24 August 2013). Available at: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21583998-trade-war-sputters-tussle-over-ukraines-future-intensifies-trading-insults [Accessed 15 April 2015]
“Ukraine crisis: 'Russia has launched a great war'". BBC, [online]. (2 September 2014). Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29017736 [Accessed 15 April 2015]