Good Essay About Decision Making Under Uncertainty

In the first scenario, the I-20 highway was jammed for 3 days out of 20 days, which means a probability of 0.15 (3 / 20). In other words, the trip on any three days of a month would extend to 45 minutes instead of planned 25 minutes as both Edith and Mathew are not aware of state of highway ahead of time. Assuming that this month is a good representation of all months ahead, Edith and Mathew should continue traveling at I-20 highway because they will save 10 minutes per day for 17 workdays and will face delay of just 10 minutes on three days only as compared to normal 35-minute time at Shea Boulevard. The total traveling time using I-20 highway in normal circumstances with 3 traffic jams is 560 minutes (45* 3 + 25*17 = 560 minutes), which means a daily average of 28 minutes (560 / 20) i.e. still below 35-minute daily average time of Shea Boulevard, which is assumed to be jam free. The fuel savings are an additional advantage reaped through use of shorter I-20 highway route.
In the second scenario, the bad weather in winter months makes it likely for traffic jams on the highway to increase to 6 days per month, which means a probability of 0.3 (6 / 20). Hence, it would be justified to use alternate Shea Boulevard specifically during winters that rarely has traffic jams assuming all external factors constant. However, the use of a new smart phone app that could show the status of the highway traffic prior to drive each morning would allow them to continue using I-20 highway as the app reduces the probability of getting into a jam down to only 0.05 (1 / 20). The external unavoidable factor is that the app showed no traffic jam on the same day, but a jam developed in the meantime of driving along the highway.