Markov Analysis AND Forecasting Essay Samples

A labor market is an approach through which the human labor is sold and bought as a commodity. It is also a mechanism by which labor supply is matched with labor demand (Phillips & Gully, 2009). Therefore, the labor market is concerned with the relationship between work organizations and workers.
In the given scenario, the labor market is made of sales, Full-time (SF), Sales, Part-time (SP), Assistant Sales Manager (ASM) and Regional Sales Manager (RSM). It is evident that the labor of this enterprise in relatively concrete and puts forth the entire process of sales. The Markov or transition matrix provided indicates the trend and thus help in future forecasting of the internal labor market. In the line of Sales, Full-time there is a 50% probability that the workers will remain in the same job and 10% probability to be promoted to Sales Part-time. 5% probability to get promotion as Assistant Sales Manager, 0% probability to be promoted to Regional Sales Manager and there was a probability of 35% that the Sales, Full-time workers will exit the company.
In the Sales, Part-time line, there is a 60% probability of staying in the same job, 5% probability of getting demoted to Sales, Full-time, and 10% chance of getting promotion to Assistant Sales Manager. Similarly, 0% probability of being promoted and there is a probability of 25% that the SP workers would exit the company. In the line of Assistant Sales Manager, there is a probability of 80% that the workers would stay on the same job and 5% chance of being demoted to Sales Full-time. Additionally, there is 10% probability of the workers being promoted to Regional Sales Manager position, and 5% of the ASM were postulated to leave the company. On the other hand, there is 0% probability that the Regional Sales Managers would be demoted to Sales, Full-time Sales, Part-time and Assistant Sales Manger’s positions respectively. There is a 70% probability that the RSM workers would remain in the same position. Again, the probability of the Regional Sale Managers exiting the company is depicted to be 30%.
In short, there is a probability that 80% of the workers will remain in their respective positions, 14% probability that workers would get promotion and 2% probability that the workers would get demotion from their current positions. Furthermore, there is a 45% probability that the workers will be gone within the next twelve months.
Basing on the Markov matrix and forecast provided it is clear that there will be changes as per the number of workers available in 2013. In Sales, Full-time line, it is depicted that 35% of the workers will exit the company. Therefore, 325 workers will be available come 2013. 25% of the Sale, Part-time workers is expected to leave the company, thus translating that 113 is the exact number of the remaining workers. In addition, it is depicted that 5% of the Assistant Sales Managers will exit; hence 47 RSMs are expected to be available in the company. Consequently, 30% of RSMs are portrayed to leave; therefore, 21 Regional Sales Managers are expected to be available in 2013. When this forecast is critically analyzed, it is evident that there will be shortages in SF, SP, and RSM workers. This is because a most considerable number of workers are expected to exit the company (Lussier & Hendon, 2013). The ASM line is also expected to lose a few workers but at least will have some surpluses.

Internal recruitment

Advantages
Quicker and cheaper to recruit
It enhances and promotes opportunities for promotion within the company thus; motivating workers
Current workers are familiar with the company and how it operates
It is efficient and easier to assess applicants in that more information is available
Disadvantages
Creates a vacancy that has to be filled
Training will be required, and learning curve will have to occur for some job duties
No innovation and ideas to be introduced to the company
It limits the number of potential applicants
Causes resentment among the workers not appointed
External recruitment
Advantages

Potential workers have a broader range of experience

People from outside the company come with new ideas and innovations
It provides a larger pool of workers from which to select the best candidate
Disadvantages

It is always a longer process

Often selection process is not such adequate especially in reviewing the best candidate
The process is relatively expensive as it involves interviews and advertising
The current organization workers might attempt to fight the new ideas
External recruitment may influence the morale of the existing employees
There are several limitations associated with forecasting. First, the forecast is based on probabilities that are mere estimates about the future. These estimates may prove not to be correct due to the uncertainty of the future. In this respect, any change or changes in employee decisions may render the forecast ineffective. The employee forecasting is limited as it does not take into consideration important aspects such as increase or reduction of employee wages (Thompson, 2012). Additionally, it does not consider that employees can change their decisions due to uncertain phenomena such as safety and natural calamities.

References

Lussier, R. N., & Hendon, J. R. (2013). Human resource management: Functions, applications, skill development. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
Phillips, J., & Gully, S. M. (2009). Staffing forecasting and planning. Alexandria, VA: Society for Human Resource Management.
Thompson, D. N. (2012). Oracles: How prediction markets turn employees into visionaries. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press.