Quantitative Methods Article Review

Article 1: The impact of coups d’état on civil war duration:

About the Article:

The article namely ‘The impact of coups d’e ́tat on war duration’ is written by the Clayton Thyne in the year 2015.

Purpose of the Study:

The aim and objective of this underlying research study is to determine how coups impact the period of the civil conflicts. The study includes both the literature of civil wars and coup d'état and after analyzing the result, some of the recommendations are being suggested for the policy makers regarding the civil wars and coups d'état. Moreover, there is no other study which has explained the theory in order to elucidate the effect which coups have in regarding the civil conflicts during the duration of the civil war. Hence, this study will examine the impact of coups in the civil conflicts.

Research Design:

The methodology which is being used in this research study is the quantitative approach. The quantitative test helps in examining the time periods of the civil conflicts from the year 1950 to 2009. While doing the analysis of the data both the internal and international conflicts are being considered and are includes in the analysis. The researcher has used various codes so that the duration of the civil war and civil conflicts can be identified. The researcher has used the Hazard analysis. Moreover, in this research study the Cox proportional hazard model has also been studies to accomplish the objective of the study. In addition to this, some of the statistical analysis has also been used in this research to support the outcomes of the examiner study. Coefficient and t-test are some statistical tools through which the results have been identified.

Hypothesis:

As the purpose of the research study is to find out the impact of the coups in shorten the duration of the civil war, hence; for this particular research study, the researcher suggested the two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is regarding to the duration of the civil war and the second hypothesis is regarding to the information mechanism which is used in the civil war by coups. The detailed explanation of these hypotheses is given below:
First Hypothesis: H1: The first hypothesis of the research study is that the successful coups should be carried out at the time of the civil war in order to abbreviate the duration of the war. This hypothesis identified the two variable one id dependent and the other is independent. The dependent variable is the duration of the war, whereas, the perpetrated of the successful coups is the independent variable of this hypothesis.

Second Hypotheses: The second hypothesis of the research study includes the two parts such as H2a and H2b.

H2a: the first part of this hypothesis includes the assumption that if the civil war is shorten via information mechanism by the coups, then the coups ought to be take place in the beginning has a strong influence researcher than take place afterward in the conflicts.
H2b: the second part of the this hypothesis assumed that if the duration of the civil war has been abbreviate by means of information mechanism by coups, the coups are seek to be take place after a while in the conflicts has a strong impact as compared to take place earlier in the conflicts.

Results:

After analyzing the data the results have been identified that by analyzing the timing of coup it has been suggested that coups usually work through the solving commitment problem which are being identified afterward in the conflict.

Article 2: Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars

About the Article:
The article namely ‘Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars’ is written by the Mehmet Gurses and Nicolas Rost in the year 2013.

Purpose of the study:

The aims and objective of this study is to identify and determine the factors which help in sustaining the peace after the occurrence of the ethnic civil wars. In this underlying research study, some of the factors have been examined through which the chances of sustaining the peace could be increased after the happening of the ethnical civil war. Moreover, this study also identifies the factors which have increased the risk of new-fangled violence in the environment of the post war which has been set after the ending of the ethnic civil war.
Research Design:
For this research study, both qualitative and quantitative approach has been used. The sampling of this research is been carried out from the all ethno-nationalist civil wars which started from the year 1950 and ended at the year 2006. In order to make the study more comparable from the other studied of the ethnic civil wars, the researcher prefer the war list of the Sambanis. In this research many cases regarding the civil war has been included. However, some of the cases are been excluded because some if the cases do not indicate the variation among the variables and some of the cases were divert from the topic. After the collection of the data, the information has been analyzed. For analyzing the data the statistical approaches and tools has also been used such as Robustness tests, two tailed test Cox regression, Weibull regression etc.
Hypothesis:

Results:

After analyzing the data through various tests and tools the result which was carried out merely show the strong support of the research hypothesis. The results found that the political and economical discrimination reduces the chances of peaces and increase the risk of the new wars after the happening of the ethnic civil wars. As the many models are being used in this underlying research study yet every model provide the same result. However, the result of this research study necessarily does not deny the earlier research findings which are associated with the conflicts and economical development but point the civil wars which were fought because of the ethnic identities. In addition to this the result also suggest that if the discrimination of ethnicity is being avoided then there are the chances that the risk related to the new war can be decreased.

Article 3: Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war

About the Article:
The article namely ‘Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war’ is written by the Gary Uzonyi and Matthew Wells in the year 2015.

Purpose of the study:

The aim and objective of this research study is to know that how the domestic institutions and the leader tenure impact the time period of the civil war throughout the bargaining process. As the leadership tenure in increasing the duration of the war so this study will focus on the fact that throughout the duration period how the leader tenure influence the duration of the civil war.

Research Study:

In order to find out the result of the research the methodology is been used. The research is consisting of the both secondary and quantitative data. In order to test the hypothesis of the research study the statistical tools and techniques has also been used. A Cox proportional hazard model has been employed in this research study. Moreover, with the aim of indentifying the case of civil conflicts the Uppsala/PRIO ACD has also been implemented. For finding the data for the leader tenure, the research headed towards the Archigos database so that the information regarding the leadership tenure could be gathered.
Hypothesis:
As the aim of the research study is to find out the reason that how the domestic institutions and the leader tenure impact the time period of the civil war throughout the bargaining process. Hence, the research study is consisting of the three hypotheses.
H1: the first hypothesis of the study estimated that the leader tenure direct towards the increased in the time period of the civil war.
H2: The second hypothesis of this research study is consists of the factor that the impact of the tenure could be reversed as well as moderated due to the existence of the powerful political institutions which limit the both, the capability if an leader to take steps unilaterally and bring difficulties for the leaders to reverse certain policies which already been enacted.
H3: The third hypothesis of the research study considers the fact that because of the absence of such strong political institutions, the duration of the war has been increased. Through which it is said that there is no such mechanism is existing which can keep the dislike leader to reneging with any deal from the rebels.

Results:

The findings of this research study reflect the civil conflicts. By analyzing the results it is concluded that the because of the involvement of the third party interventions and the fighting groups determining the reason that why some of the civil wars continue longer as compared to the other wars. The study focus on the role of the leader has a huge influence on the ability of the leader so that they could easily bargain with the rebels. The problem of commitment is present in such situations where the autocratic leader is in power for the longer period of time which results in the continuity of the conflict. However, this study also indicate that leader who are more trustworthy to be followed then the tenure could not influenced the duration of the civil war.

Article 4: Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency

About the Article:
The article namely ‘Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency’ is written down by the author Ulrich Pilster and Tobias Böhmelt in the year 2014.
Purpose of the Study:
The aim and objectives of this research study is to predict the time duration of the Syrian insurgency that how long the insurgency crises will be existing in the country Syria. As the crises in the Syria are rising form the last many years, so this underlying research study will identify the duration that how long will these crisis will continue. Due to the insurgency situation in the Syria it has be estimated that how long this insurgency will be existing in the Syria.
Hypothesis:
The hypothesis of this research is estimated durations of the Syrian insurgency. Hence the research study has no set a particular hypothesis because the exact duration of the Syrian civil war is not known by the researcher at the time of setting the hypothesis. However, while doing the research it was estimated that the average duration of the Syria civil war and insurgency will be almost 5.12 years. Yet this duration is still not confirmed as it will be determined after doing the analysis of the data in the research design.
Research Design:
The research design of this study includes the both secondary and quantitative data. With the purpose of analyzing and predicting the insurgency durations the data for this study has been gathered of the 286 insurgencies ranging between the 1800 and 2005. By using this data the study get support in the variety of different variable which might not be possible to gather from the any other source. There are two variable namely dependent and independent variable in this study. The dependent variable is the duration and the independent variable is the Syrian insurgency. This tells that the duration of Syrian civil war is dependent on the Syrian insurgency. Moreover, some of the statistical tools are also being used in this research study with the purpose of identifying the desired result. The Weibull regression model is being used for finding the coded variables. Further, the two tailed test is also being implemented in this underlying research study. The linear regression has also been implemented to determine the duration of the insurgency in years.
Results:
The finding of this research indicates some strong predictors which are related to the insurgency durations. By analyzing the Syrian insurgency into the three diverse scenarios it has been estimated the most practical scenario is the insurgency length of 5.12 years. The author also identified that from the year 1945 to 1996, 38% of the civil war was been fought. Moreover, apart from the estimation of the duration of the insurgency, this research study also contributed in developing the models. With the help of these models the duration of the insurgency in Syria has been identifies more easily. Further, this research also indicates that the even the existing insurgencies came into end yet the Syria crises are more unlikely to be change. Moreover, the outcome faced many limitations such as the conventional insurgency and the lack of economic support for the government.

Article 5: Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes

About the Article:

The article namely ‘Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes’ is written by the author Mehmet Gurses in the year 2015.

Purpose of the study:
The aim and objective of this research study is to determine the fact that how the Transnational Ethnic Kin support as a catalyst which sustain the civil wars. For accomplishing the research objectives the data from 1950 and 2006 was being selected so that the impact of the variables could be identified easily. Moreover, with the help of various studies this study also understand that how the international factors for instances transborder ethnic kin can provide and opportunity and the resources for the violent conflicts.
Hypothesis:
As the aim and objective of the research study to identify that how the Transnational Ethnic Kin help in sustaining the civil war. Therefore, the researcher has only set a one hypothesis for this research study. The hypothesis which is set by the researcher indicates that the civil wars which are ought to be fight by ethnic mobilized rebel groups with kin within the neighboring country are more tend to give the outcome which are in the favor of the rebels.
Research Design:
The research design of this underlying research study includes both secondary and the quantitative data. In order to find the desired out a sample has been selected of the ethnic wars ranging from the year 1950 and 2006. The sample was selected from the (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict Dataset. While collecting the sampling the researcher was able to define only 168 wars out if which the 148 has already been ended in the year 2006. The research study has two variables such as dependent and independent variables. The dependent variable of this research study is the civil war. While on the other hand, the independent variable of the research study is the Transnational Ethnic Kin. To test the result various statistical tools and techniques are being used so that the desired outcome can be achieved. The significant statistical tool which was used is the multinomial logit coefficient. Moreover, two tailed test was also been used to find the outcome form the year 1950 to 2006. In addition to this the MNLM and Weibull regression has also been implemented in the research study.
Results:
It has been observed that many of the ethnic group use the violent ways so that they could get a better status and rise above the certain territorial boundaries. This underlying research study concluded that the dimensions which are transactional of the ethnic civil wars has an obvious influence on the result of the civil wars through changing of the balance of the power between the ethnic mobilized rebels and the government. Additionally, the group, country and the war has a huge impact and can affect the chances of that wither the civil war will be ended by the one sided victory of the military or either it will be a settlement through the negotiation. The Ethnic kin has strong significant impact on the outcomes which are derived from the war. The trans-border ethnic kin has raised the chances that the warring parties might be done a settlement through the negotiation. Therefore, this study shoes the transactional feature of the civil war and this study also contributes in determining that how the trans-border ethnic kin has helped in finishing the civil wars of the world.

References:

Gurses, M. (2015). Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes. Political Research Quarterly, 68(1), 142-153
Gurses, M., & Rost, N. (2013). Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 30(5), 469-491.
Pilster, U., & Böhmelt, T. (2014). Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency. Research & Politics, 1(2)
Thyne, C. (2015). The Impact of Coups d’état on Civil War Duration. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 1-21
Uzonyi, G., & Wells, M. S. (2015). Domestic Institutions, Leader Tenure, and the Duration of Civil War. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 1-17