Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? Essay

Jared Diamond’s book centers on case studies that show how many societies in the past have vanished and collapsed due to failure to adapt to deteriorating or and demanding economic, environmental and political conditions. In the fourteenth chapter, Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? targets the societies as his primary audience. He cites their inadequacies in experience and reasoning. In this section, he analyzes the fate of various societies such as Easter Islanders, the Anasazi, the Mayans, the Norse colonies contrasting to others such as New Guinea the highlanders that managed to adapt and develop. Diamond also draws some of his case studies from modern occurrences such as Rwanda Genocide as well as Australia and China’s environmental problems in connection with aforementioned examples. Of critical importance in this paper is the 9th to 12th chapter that summarizes the key lessons of the chapter. The paragraphs further embody various text organizations that enable the conveyance of the key subject of the chapter.
In paragraph nine, Diamond posits that societies’ failure to anticipate an emerging problem cannot be wholly based on lack of prior experience or adequate knowledge regarding an occurrence at hand. The author employs cause and effect and comparisons and contrasts as part of the text organization in positing his argument. For instance, the narrative of the Chaco Canyon Asanazi society is used to show how lack of prior knowledge experience can be disastrous in the anticipation of a problem. He shows the cause of the Asanazi society’s problem which is lack of prior experience which was enhanced by illiteracy of the said society as it failed to document or store information regarding past occurrences. The effect of this failure is established by Diamond as the succumbing of the society to a big drought in the 12th century A.D. He draws comparisons and contrasts between the Asanazi that lacked prior information by drawing similarities with the Classic Lowland Maya that succumbed to drought despite having prior experience and knowledge recorded in king deeds and astronomical events.
In the subsequent paragraph, the author cites that even modern cites despite established literacy levels tend to forget past occurrences that affects their decisions. The author uses the descriptive text organization to illustrate this notion. He describes the 1973 Gulf Oil crisis as a classic case of forgetting past occurrences. Diamond accentuates that Americans then on “shied away from gas-guzzling cars” and then “forgot about the experience”. The Americans currently have embraced SUVs despite their high fuel consumption.
In the eleventh paragraph, the author posits that the reason a society fails to anticipate a problem is founded on reasoning by false analogy. Through a descriptive text organization, Diamond offers details the plight of the Vikings who immigrated to Iceland beginning A.D 870 from Norway and Britain. The Vikings cut down forests in Iceland due to their understanding regarding soils based on the false analogy regarding tree species. They believed since the same tree species thrived in their new and old homes the soil type and quality was similar. This was, however, not true as the Icelandic soil was light ash blown out in volcanic eruptions and was easily erodible as compared to the Norwegian and British clay soil.
The twelfth paragraph dwells on modern day occurrences that involved reasoning by false analogy. Through a descriptive text organization, the author alludes to the French military preparations of the World War II. The French military strategy for this war was drawn from the effects and impact of the First World War. World War II, however, saw the Germans who were the French’s enemies employ different military tactics which involved use of tanks rather than infantry to spearhead its attacks. In reasoning of false analogy, the French military established a war strategy that assumed the coming war would be similar to the previous war.